Existing home sales activity reached the highest level ever for the month of December, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Strong demand in the second half of 2009, especially in the fourth quarter, pushed annual sales above 2008 levels.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards numbered 27,744 units in December 2009. This stands 72 per cent above activity in December 2008, when activity dropped to the lowest level in a decade. New records for the month of December were reported in Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales totalled 46,805 units in December, capping the strongest fourth quarter period ever. A total of 137,957 homes traded hands on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is up 2.6 per cent from the previous record set in the first quarter of 2007. New quarterly records were set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

National sales activity began 2009 on a weak footing. Despite year-over-year increases in the second and third quarters of the year, year-to-date activity was still trailing 2008 levels at the end of September 2009. A 59 per cent year-over-year gain in the fourth quarter of 2009 pushed sales activity above annual levels for 2008.

“Sales activity in 2009 came in like a lamb and went out like a lion,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “The continuation of unusually low interest rates may keep national sales activity near current levels over the coming months, as will a blip in housing demand in Ontario and British Columbia from homebuyers motivated to beat the introduction of the HST.”

Annual activity in 2009 was down 10.7 per cent from the peak reached in 2007. A total of 465,251 homes traded hands through the MLS® systems of real estate boards in Canada in 2009. This is up 7.7 per cent from 2008 levels, and represents the fourth highest level on record for annual activity.

The national residential average price was $337,410 in December, up 19 per cent year-over-year. On an annual basis, average price climbed five per cent to a record $320,333. Average prices set new annual records in a majority of local markets in 2009, and in every province except Alberta.

The large year-over-year increase in the national average price in December reflects the high degree to which it was skewed downward in late 2008 by unusually low activity in Canada’s priciest markets. The national average price was also skewed upward by rebounding activity in the spring and summer months of 2009. The national average price rose to unprecedented heights at that time, despite records having been set in only a small number of local markets.

The contribution of activity by higher priced markets toward the national average price has recently returned to more typical levels. Record level average prices in most regions are now driving the national average price to new heights.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 3.6 per cent in 2009.

The residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 5.5 per cent year-over-year to $348,840 in 2009. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 2.3 per cent from 2008 levels.

Strong demand and headline average price gains are drawing more sellers to the market. New listings coming onto Board MLS® Systems across Canada rose to the highest level on record for the month of December, with a total of 33,090 residential properties coming on stream. This is up 4.8 per cent from December 2008, the first year-over-year gain in a year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new listings rose by 4.7 per cent in December 2009 compared to the previous month.

The recent rising trend in new listings has not yet offset the steep decline in the number of new listings during the first half of 2009. As a result, new listings in 2009 were down 12.6 per cent from the annual peak in 2008.

Despite the recent rise in new listings, strong demand for resale housing continues to draw down inventories. There were 154,264 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of December 2009, a decline of 22 per cent from levels reported one year ago.

Nationally, there were 4.1 months of inventory in December 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the lowest level in more than two years.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in December 2009 stood at 5.6 months, the lowest December figure since 2005, and well below the same month in 2008 (12.3 months). Although up slightly from November (five months), an increase is normal at this time of year since demand normally eases relative to supply over autumn and winter months. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

“CREA’s latest statistics will no doubt spark further bubble talk amongst the usual suspects,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Cooler heads recognize that many of the recent gains reflect temporary factors that could fade by summer.”

“The extraordinary decline in activity one year ago and subsequent rebound, particularly for higher-priced real estate, is stretching current year-over-year comparisons,” he said. “By the second half of 2010, price gains are likely to shrink significantly, since a year will have elapsed since the decline and rebound. Klump added that, “Further expected increases in supply will also take some steam out of the market. A more balanced market will result in smaller price increases in the second half of the year, but a massive decline in demand similar to what we saw in late 2008 and early 2009 seems as unlikely as a massive spike in supply.”

To view the complete release: http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_dec09.pdf

Says raising interest rates could hurt entire economy

The Bank of Canada backed away Monday from its recent warnings about a real estate bubble in Canada.

In a speech in Edmonton, bank official David Wolf ruled out increasing interest rates to discourage mortgage lending.

Wolf, an adviser to bank governor Mark Carney, said that in the central bank’s view it is premature to be talking about a housing bubble in Canada.

“We see the housing market requiring vigilance, not alarm,” he said.

He added that even if the bank was convinced housing prices were getting out of hand, raising interest rates would be too blunt an instrument, since it would mean cooling off all economic activity.

“We would, in essence, be dousing the entire Canadian economy with cold water, just as it emerges from recession,” he said in a speech delivered on behalf of deputy governor Timothy Lane, who could not travel to the Alberta capital for personal reasons.

“As a result, it would take longer for economic growth to return to potential and for inflation to get back to target,” he added.

Wolf said the bank considers the current hot market to be a phenomenon based on temporary factors, such as pent-up demand from the recession, and low mortgage rates. Moreover, he noted with starts below long-term demographic requirements, the number of houses on the market is still declining.

Better ways to cool market

Wolf, a former chief economist with Merrill Lynch Canada, said there are better ways to cool the housing market.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has also mused about such measures, including raising the minimum down payment requirement above five per cent, or reducing the maximum length a house can be amortized from the current 35 years.

The bank has been highlighting for months the danger of Canadians getting in over their heads in purchasing homes, warning that buyers should ensure they don’t take on too much debt.

The bank’s worry is that homeowners with large mortgages that are manageable now with interest rates at record lows won’t be able to afford their monthly payments once interest rates start rising, as is expected later this year.

On the economy as a whole, Wolf said the bank believes the economic recovery is still dependent on government support and that “growth drive by the private sector has yet to materialize.”

Notes from the speech were posted on the bank’s website.

Source: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/01/11/bank-of-canada-housing-bubble-david-wolf.html

1. What is the home buyers’ tax credit (HBTC)?

For 2009 and subsequent years, the HBTC is a new non-refundable tax credit, based on an amount of $5,000, for certain home buyers that acquire a qualifying home after January 27, 2009 (i.e., generally means that the closing is after this date).

2. How is the new HBTC calculated?

The HBTC is calculated by multiplying the lowest personal income tax rate for the year (15% in 2009) by $5,000. For 2009, the credit will be $750.

3. Am I eligible for the HBTC?

You will qualify for the HBTC if:

• you or your spouse or common-law partner acquire a qualifying home; and
• you did not live in another home owned by you or your spouse or common-law partner in the year of acquisition or in any of the four preceding years.

If you are a person with a disability or are buying a house for a related person with a disability, you do not have to be a first-time home buyer. However, the home must be acquired to enable the person with the disability to live in a more accessible dwelling or in an environment better suited to the personal needs and care of that person.

4. What is a qualifying home?

A qualifying home is a housing unit located in Canada acquired after January 27, 2009. This includes existing homes and those being constructed. Single-family homes, semi‑detached homes, townhouses, mobile homes, condominium units, and apartments in duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, or apartment buildings all qualify. A share in a co‑operative housing corporation that entitles you to possess, and gives you an equity interest in, a housing unit located in Canada also qualifies. However, a share that only provides you with a right to tenancy in the housing unit does not qualify.

As well, you must intend to occupy the home or you must intend that the related person with a disability occupy the home as a principal place of residence no later than one year after you buy it.

5. Who is considered a person with a disability for purposes of the HBTC?

For purposes of the HBTC, an individual eligible for the disability tax credit (DTC) is one for whom an amount can be claimed under the DTC for the year in which the home is acquired, or could be claimed if costs for attendant care or care in a nursing home were not claimed for the [Medical Expense Tax Credit].

6. If I buy a house, can my spouse or common-law partner claim the HBTC?

Either one of you can claim the credit or you can share the credit. However, the total of your combined claims cannot exceed $750.

7. My friend and I intend to jointly purchase a home, and we both meet the conditions for the HBTC. Can we both claim the credit?

Either one of you can claim the credit or you can share the credit. However, the total of your combined claims cannot exceed $750.

8. Do I have to register the acquisition of the home under the applicable land registration system?

Yes. Your interest in the home must be registered in accordance with the land registration system applicable to where it is located.

9. How will I claim the HBTC?

Beginning with the 2009 personal income tax return, line 369 is incorporated into the Schedule 1, Federal Tax to allow you to claim the credit in the year in which you acquired the qualifying home.

10. Do I have to submit any supporting documents with my income tax return?

No. However, you must ensure that this information is available, should it be requested by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA).

11. Is the HBTC connected to the existing Home Buyers’ Plan?

No. Although some of the eligibility conditions for the HBTC and the Home Buyers’ Plan are similar, the two are not connected. Your eligibility for the HBTC will not change whether or not you also participate in the Home Buyers’ Plan.

12. Where can I get more information about the new HBTC?

The CRA encourages taxpayers to check its Web site often—all new forms, policies, and guidelines are posted there as soon as they become available.

September 24, 2009

Kelowna, BC (Sept. 24, 2009) — With the worst of the recession over, residential real estate markets in major Canadian centres are poised for growth in the final quarter of 2009, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX Bricks and Mortar Report found the bounce back that began in early Spring has made this recession one of the shortest on record for real estate. Low interest rates, pent-up demand, and improved affordability levels have all played a role in the recovery now well-underway. Percentage increases in sales from January to August 2009 were led by Vancouver, (up a substantial 14 per cent to 23,158), Victoria (up 7.4 per cent to 5,266), Edmonton (up 6.2 per cent to 13,691), Regina (up five per cent to 2,597), Ottawa (up 2.4 per cent to 10,830) and Toronto (up 1.8 per cent to 58,421). Housing values are already ahead of record-breaking 2008 levels in seven of the 11 markets surveyed, including Newfoundland-Labrador (18.1 per cent year to $203,584), Regina (6.4 per cent to $244,088), Halifax-Dartmouth (3.5 per cent to $239,633), Winnipeg (3.5 per cent to $207,006), Ottawa (3.3 per cent to $301,684), and Toronto (up 0.3 per cent to $385,978). Nationally, average price hovers at $312,585, up 0.5 per cent over one year ago.

“The strength of the residential housing sector cross-country has taken many economists and housing analysts by surprise once again,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “In terms of its impact on the resale market, by historical standards, this recession was one of the mildest. The resilience of bricks and mortar has been demonstrated time and again. While there may still be some challenges down the road, the worst is definitely behind us in the housing industry.”

The recovery of Canada’s resale housing markets speaks to the tremendous value Canadians place on the importance of owning a home. The number of Canadians overall who own a home has increased since 1981 from 62.1 per cent to 68.4 per cent, with some markets posting even higher homeownership rates — Calgary (74.1), St. John’s (71.5), Regina (70.1), and Edmonton (69.2). Significant gains have also been made over the same period in markets such as Ottawa — where homeownership levels rose from 51.4 per cent to 66.7 per cent — and Toronto, where levels rose fro m 57.3 to 67.6 per cent.

“Markets are heating up across the country,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Purchasers are clearly taking advantage of affordable prices and rock bottom interest rates. Those who missed the boat in years past have found that sitting on the sidelines can be a costly move. Prices are on the upswing and inventory levels are tightening, so the push toward homeownership is expected to continue throughout the Fall and possibly into early 2010.”

Over the past thirty years, the Canadian residential real estate market has experienced three major downturns – 1981, 1989, and 2008. While there have also been regional fluctuations throughout the years, return on investment over this period has been substantial, with Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto, Regina and Ottawa leading the country in terms of price appreciation.

The overall stability of real estate as an investment has also played a role. Markets like Halifax-Dartmouth, Regina, Ottawa, Winnipeg and London have provided steady returns (especially in recent years), with minimal fluctuation.

Public sentiment can best be illustrated by a recent Angus Reid Omnibus Survey* that asked the question “In which do you feel more comfortable investing your money? The stock market or real estate.” Out of 1,000 respondents from coast-to-coast, 77 per cent chose real estate. The results of the RE/MAX Bricks and Mortar Report are clearly representative of this national dynamic at work.

RE/MAX is Canada’s leading real estate organization with over 17,000 sales associates situated throughout its more than 677 independently-owned and operated offices across the country. The RE/MAX franchise network, now in its 36th year, is a global real estate system operating in more than 70 countries. Over 6,700 independently-owned offices engage nearly 100,000 member sales associates who lead the industry in professional designations, experience and production while providing real estate services in residential, commercial, referral, and asset management. For more information, visit: www.remax.ca.

* The Angus Reid Omnibus Survey was conducted on September 15, 2009 and yields a margin of error of +3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

For more information:

Elaine Langhout
RE/MAX of Western Canada
250.860.3628

Eva Blay/Charlene McAdam
Point Blank Communications
416.781.3911

Source: http://www.remax-western.ca/news/canadian-housing-markets-buck-recession-and-trend-upwards-says-remax

Kelowna, BC. (July 13, 2009) – Pent-up demand for residential housing has bolstered sales in Canada’s major markets—a clear signal that the housing sector has shifted into recovery mode, says RE/MAX.

More balanced market conditions have emerged, effectively ending the stronghold that buyers had on the market over the past six to eight months.  Canada’s largest markets, Toronto and Vancouver, led the charge—with June sales among the highest in history for both local real estate boards.  Close to 11,000 properties changed hands in Toronto, up 27 per cent over one year ago, setting a new record for sales in the month of June.  The figure was just slightly off the all-time peak of 11,146 units.   Residential sales in Greater Vancouver increased 75.6 per cent over one year ago, to 4,259 units, just short of the record breaking 4,333 sales, which occurred in June 2005.  Overall, major markets began to recover in March, posting escalating sales in April, May and June.  The impetus is expected to continue throughout the remainder of 2009, with most centres now forecasting year-end sales on par or ahead of 2008 levels.

“While sales are the leading indicator, there are other clear signals that recovery is indeed underway,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada.  “Renewed consumer confidence, albeit cautious, has been key, supported by improved economic news.  In addition, we’ve seen sale price-to-list price ratios climb across the country, rising as high as 105 per cent in some communities.  Vendor incentives have also come off the table, both for resale and new housing stock.”

The recent surge in resale activity can be attributed to three key factors—pent-up demand, low interest rates, and greater affordability.  The combination—in conjunction with declining inventory levels—has created heated market conditions in hot pocket neighbourhoods, prompting a resurgence in multiple offers in June.  Average prices are holding steady or climbing, days on market are down, and inventory levels continue to tighten, especially at entry-level price points.

“The strength of the market, amid the most significant global recession in recent history once again underscores its relevance to the nation’s economic engine,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada.  “Canadians believe in homeownership –a fact best illustrated by the purchasers who ventured forward in recent months and snapped up some of the best real estate deals this market has seen in years.  Those who chose to sit it out on the sidelines are now facing a market in transition, characterized by the threat of rising interest rates, low inventory levels, and upward pressure on housing values.”

Although the current pace may be unsustainable, all markers point to greater stability in the market, leading to healthier activity in the long run, with inventory levels a key variable influencing pent-up demand.

Market by market overview:

Greater Vancouver Area

Growing consumer confidence levels have prompted a serious upswing in home buying activity in the Greater Vancouver Area, with sales in June (4,259) the second highest on record for the local real estate board.  From White Rock to Vancouver, radiating out to the Fraser Valley, bidding wars are breaking out on well-priced product. In Kitsilano, an estimated 50 per cent of housing is selling in multiple offers.  Low interest rates and increased affordability – average price is still significantly lower than one year ago – have served to stimulate market activity.  Inventory levels have been on

the decline in recent months, placing greater upward pressure on values.  First-time buyers are driving freehold housing sales at the $600,000 price point, while those looking at more affordable alternatives are considering condominiums starting at substantially less.  Balanced market conditions prevail overall. Pent-up demand has also been building, with local purchasers and international investors both active in the market.  The upcoming Olympics, and the completion of the much anticipated Canada Line this Fall are expected to further bolster the cautious optimism characteristic of the Greater Vancouver market at present.  Home buying activity, as a result, is forecast to continue at a healthy pace for the remainder of the year, with year-end sales slightly ahead of 2008 levels.

Calgary

Balanced conditions have returned to Calgary’s resale housing market.  Strengthening momentum—residential sales at over 3,000 units were up in double-digit territory in June —has already begun to place upward pressure on prices in the entry level.  With increasing competition among first-time buyers, the supply of starter homes is tightening.   Buyers who moved in spite of doom and gloom forecasts in the Fall, Winter, and early Spring realized considerable savings, while those who hesitated are discovering it has cost them.  Multiple offers are re-emerging in a few choice neighbourhoods on well-priced product, although there are still a few good deals to be had in the mid-range. Prices on the whole, however, are stabilizing.  Signs of a transitionally stronger market include rising sales-to-new listings ratios, shorter days on market, and fewer incentives

from vendors/builders. Activity is expected to remain better than average this summer, as those who paused over the past six months dive back in before interest rates rise.   Momentum will continue to build into the fall, with overall 2009 sales edging slightly ahead of 2008 levels by year-end.

Edmonton

The residential resale market is springing back to life in Edmonton, with sales setting a new record for the month (June) and the third best month for unit sales in MLS history.  While activity has been steadily improving in the second quarter, the heated momentum has yet to put any serious pressure on average price, which, although rebounding, remains down year-over-year.  The market has shifted, moving from buyer’s territory to more balanced conditions, prompted by the recent flurry in home buying and the slow return to more traditional inventory levels.  Stability will characterize Edmonton’s housing sector going forward, with low interest rates, rising consumer confidence levels and affordability the impetus behind healthy demand.  The frenzied climate of previous upswings will be conspicuously absent.  While multiple offers have re-emerged—particularly in the $300,000 to $450,000 price point—they will continue to be the exception rather than the rule, driving sales price close to, but not typically over, asking price.   Demand is expected to remain strong in the months ahead, bolstered by looming interest rate hikes and glimmers of positive news on the economic horizon, as consumers regain a cautious optimism.

Regina

Positive economic performance continues to bolster home buying activity in Regina.  Despite a 10 per cent decline in year-to-date sales (1,778 vs. 1,977 units) from levels reported January to June 2008, the gap is narrowing as purchasers move to take advantage of low interest rates and greater affordability.  Sales in May and June were up in double-digit territory over one year ago and momentum is building. First-time buyers remain the most active segment of the market, sparking sales under $275,000.  Inventory levels have been responsible for the steady upward pressure on housing values in the lower-end of the market.  Limited supply of starter product in Regina has most properties in good condition, in desirable communities, moving quickly – some in multiple offers.   The top-end of the market has also seen some bounce back, with sales between $400,000 and $450,000 up about 25 per cent over one year ago.

Condominium sales, however, have softened year-over-year, with an oversupply of product currently listed for sale.  Although conditions currently favour the buyer, the market is transitioning.  More balanced conditions are expected to emerge in the months ahead. Given a continuation of current economic fundamentals, the number of homes sold in Regina by year-end is expected to match 2008 levels.

Greater Toronto Area

Pent-up demand for residential housing continues to fuel home buying activity across the Greater Toronto Area.  The number of homes sold in June – at 10,955 — came close to the historic record of 11,146 units set in May 2007, while pressure on average price is sending housing values higher than one year ago.  Although balanced market conditions prevail, there are those communities that have clearly transitioned into sellers markets.  Inventory is key, with the number of properties

currently listed for sale down approximately 30 per cent from 2008 levels. Over the past six weeks,

momentum has been building, with demand strongest for homes priced between $300,000 and $600,000.  Multiple offers are once again commonplace, especially in the city’s coveted hot pocket neighbourhoods.  Affordability – in terms of low interest rates and housing values – has been the impetus for first-time buyers.  Luxury home sales have also experienced solid demand in recent months, with 291 homes changing hands over the $1 million price point in June – a new record.  The threat of higher interest rates and home prices are expected to stimulate a flurry of home-buying activity in the months ahead.  By year-end, sales are forecast to exceed 2008 levels.

Ottawa

Solid economic fundamentals in the nation’s capital continue to prop up housing activity.  Year-to-date sales for January to June are slightly ahead of 2008 levels, with the number of properties sold in June (1,895) up 12.5 per cent over one year ago – the third consecutive record setting month.  Pent-up demand has been a major factor, with purchasers who put their home buying decisions on hold during the late fall and early winter now entering the market en masse.  As a result, the balanced market that prevailed in recent months is now shifting in favour of the seller.  Multiple offers are occurring on desirable properties in virtually every price range.  Inventory levels, which peaked in April, are now falling.  With less product on the market, certain segments are experiencing serious shortages—in fact, single family homes priced between $275,000 to $375,000 are few and far between. In the past four to six weeks, the upper-end has also started to rebound as all segments of the market work in tandem.  While the threat of an upcoming election will have some impact on the market, healthy sales activity is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year, with sales ahead of 2008 levels.

Halifax-Dartmouth

Improved purchasing power, combined with the threat of rising interest rates, effectively spurred fence-sitters back into the resale housing market in June, halting the trend of double-digit declines in sales.  The number of homes sold was up five per cent to 805 units in June 2009, compared to one year ago.

Despite the increased momentum, buyers remain firmly in the driver’s seat, benefiting from increased inventory and negotiating muscle, as motivated vendors adjust pricing to position their homes more competitively.  Although sales remain down year-over-year, the gap is narrowing.  Affordability and the stability of Halifax-Dartmouth’s relocation market continue to prop up activity, and first-time buyers remain the driving force.  Opportunity exists for purchasers in the mid-to-upper price ranges, where demand and conditions have generally been softer.   Consumer confidence is strengthening once again.  With the upswing expected to extend into the fall, more balanced market conditions are forecast to emerge, and Halifax-Dartmouth may once again find itself a market in transition.

St. John’s

Strong consumer confidence, buoyed by a vibrant local economy and a healthy employment picture, has kept St. John’s real estate engine moving at a steady clip.  With billions of dollars in

capital works projects planned or underway, in-migration remains positive and demand for resale housing continues to be solid.  Improving inventory levels have shifted the market slightly into buyers territory, giving purchasers the necessary traction to make their moves.  The threat of interest rate hikes has further stimulated home buying activity, pushing fence-sitters off the sidelines and into action.  Residential sales in June 2009 (354 units) are slightly ahead of June 2008 (351 units) figures. The year-to-date average price recorded a 24 per cent increase to $211,221, compared to $170,500 for the same time period last year, bolstered by greater momentum in the mid-range.  Corporate transfers have been a significant stimulus.  Entry-level homes, priced between $100,000 and $200,000, are being snapped up at an unprecedented pace given the sharp upswing in pricing. Listing inventory levels are higher and the upper-end continues to move well, supported by the relocation market.  Inventory will be a key factor influencing St. John’s housing sector in the months ahead.  The pace is expected to continue, with sales rounding out the year at or ahead of 2007 levels, but below record numbers reported in 2008.

RE/MAX is Canada’s leading real estate organization with over 17,000 sales associates situated throughout its more than 677 independently-owned and operated offices across the country.  The RE/MAX franchise network, now in its 36^th year, is a global real estate system operating in more than 70 countries.  Over 6,700 independently-owned offices engage nearly 100,000 member sales associates who lead the industry in professional designations, experience and production while providing real estate services in residential, commercial, referral, and asset management.  For more information, visit: www.remax.ca