Nov 2012: Kelowna Report and 2013 Forecast

Kelowna Report and Forecast 2013
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Kelowna Market Update

We, The Krieg Family think whatever is, is! We give you the unbiased information. As we said before, the numbers are the numbers and the fact is, we are sorry to say, that Kelowna experienced a tremendous slowdown in the last two months as you can see on the graphs and numbers below.

October 2012 Stats
Kelowna And Area Single Family Dwellings (SFD) Activity
Sales in the Single Family Dwellings (SFD) reached only to 123 in October which is 7% below 2011 and way below our 20 year average, which is 170 sales. Having said that, YTD total sales is still about 7% over 2011.

Listings show a slight increase to a total of 1,514 which is 2% higher than last year’s October but, above the middle 2000s that were around the 900 mark.

Percentage of Listings vs Sales
We are still clearly in a buyer’s market at only 8.1% of the listing inventory selling.

Average Price Holding Steady
The average price here in Kelowna for SFD was $452,886 last month which is below last year’s October, by only 3%. YTD we see a 1.5% reduction.

Million $ Plus
The MLS system shows 10 properties sold over $1Million. 1 Condo; 3 Acreages; 4 Lakeshore homes and 2 Single Family Dwellings.

Conclusion
Right now, we are definitely in a buyer’s market. Sellers have to be very aggressive in order to get good activity and to obtain offers on a property.

In the meantime, our neighbour, the USA is reporting a housing turnaround and CMHC is predicting a better 2013. In addition Canada is having a record year in car sales.

Statistics can be manipulated in so many ways that journalists, economists, or whoever feels like it, can pretty much paint the market to look however it best suits them. You can find headlines that read predictions of total collapse in the market to it has never been better, and all this on the same day. To top it all off, many times Kelowna is not even included in the statistics as it is mostly about Toronto and Vancouver.

Some Headlines

CMHC Kelowna Fall Housing Market Outlook
Expects sales to increase 8% in 2013
Expects housing starts to increase in 2013
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64359/64359_2012_B02.pdf

Housing Is Finally Giving the Economy Some Love
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/10/26/housing-is-finally-giving-the-economy-some-love/

Inventory of New Homes Down to Lowest Level in Nearly 50 Years
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/inventory-of-new-homes-down-to-lowest-level-in-50-years-2012-10-31

Foreclosures fall in 62% of U.S. cities
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/25/real_estate/foreclosures-cities/index.html

Warren Buffett Just Made A Huge Bet On The US Housing Market
Warren Buffett: Good time to buy a Home US
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-brookfield-asset-managment-housing-2012-10

The federal government has intervened in the housing market four times in four years. Back in the spring, Ottawa was still wishing that the housing wasn’t so hot. They wished that mortgage growth wasn’t so robust. Well, now we have it. “Always be careful what you wish for”.

Did you know Six Canadian cities are among the top 10 in North America for the number of high-rises and skyscrapers being built. #1 Toronto has 147 high rise buildings under construction, more than #2 New York at 86, #3 Vancouver including Richmond 29, Montreal 20, Calgary 13…

Watch Wolf and Colin’s YouTube Video, 2013 Market Outlook

 

The greatest compliment we can receive are the referrals from our clients, friends and acquaintances.

Active Listings: Single Family, Apartments, Townhomes
Number of Sales: Single Family, Apartments, Townhomes
Average Price: Single Family, Apartments, Townhomes

 

Major Cities Report
Victoria:

Federal Measures Make Impact on Victoria Real Estate Market
While prices held steady through most of the Greater Victoria region’s real estate market in October, government lending regulations have had the desired “cooling effect” on year-over-year sales numbers. During the month, 211 single family homes sold throughout the Victoria Real Estate Board’s region, compared to 260 in October 2011. The average price for single family homes was $576,720, down 2% from last October’s average of $590,539.
11 Single Family Dwellings sold over $1 million, 1 over $2 million, 1 over $3 million

Vancouver:

Housing Market Sees Slight Changes in October
The Greater Vancouver housing market saw a slight increase in the number of home sales, a slight reduction in the number of listings, and a slight decrease in home prices in October compared to the summer months. October sales were 28.5% below the 10-year October sales average of 2,700.

Sales of detached properties in Greater Vancouver reached 790 in October, a decrease of 18.9% from the 974 detached sales recorded in October 2011, and a 19.1% decrease from the 976 units sold in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 4.1% to $927,500.

Calgary:

Calgary Housing Market Does Not Show Signs Of SlowingCity of Calgary sales activity marked a 23% increase over levels recorded in October 2011. Single family sales growth has been the strongest, with nearly 17% more year-to-date sales this year compared to last year. As of October 2012, the benchmark price for a single family home was $433,300, an 8% increase over the previous year.

Edmonton:

Nothing Scary in Halloween Housing MarketEdmonton reports that housing prices in October were up compared to a year ago and are the highest October in the past five years. The average price of a single family detached home was $372,061 up 2.1% over a year ago. There were a total of 2,228 residential listings in October, with sales of 1,375 properties.

Toronto:

Average Price Up in October, Despite Fewer SalesGreater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,896 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in October 2012 – a decrease of 7.1% compared to October 2011. The average selling price for October transactions was $503,479 – up 6.2% compared to October 2011.

Single Family Home Average Price 2009 – 2012

Single Family Home Average Price Graph 2000 - 2008

Number of Sold Single Family Dwellings 2009 – 2012

ber of Sold Single Family Dwellings Graph 2005 - 2008

Single Family Listing Inventory 2009 – 2012

Single Family Listing Inventory Graph 2005 - 2008

Single Family Percentage of Sales to Listing Ratio2006 – 2012(Percentage of How Many Listings Sell in a Month)

Single Family Percentage of Sales to Listing Ratio

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RE/MAX Kelowna
#100 – 1553 Harvey Av.
Kelowna, BC
V1Y 6G1

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